Russia – Ukraine, an artificial war hysteria

Soham Athavale

20 February 2022

"Russian troop build-up was at its peak till end of January 2022....."

The current war hysteria started surfacing in media in early December when Russia gathered its forces near the Ukrainian border. Later the intensity of the war hysteria increased when United States started predicting the invasion dates in late January. The final prediction was of February 16th 2022 which was also hoax. Each and every player in this game of war hysteria gained their specific objectives. And some unexpected countries like Turkey also got its piece of cake. To understand the Russo – Ukrainian conflict we have to dive into the history.

After the Russian revolution of 1917, 4 Republics; Russian republic, Transcaucasian republic, Belarusian republic and Ukrainian republic were formed. In 1922 these republics established USSR. In 1991 Ukraine separated from USSR following its decline. In 2008 Bucharest Summit of NATO nations, the member nations declared that Ukraine can be a member of NATO. This would make a direct border sharing between Russia and NATO. But what exactly is NATO? North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a cold war era organization specially founded to counter Union of Soviet Socialists Republic (USSR) now Russia. It is a typical anti – Russia establishment. To avoid this there was an invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and its southern province Crimea was annexed by Russia. Donbas region of Ukraine is also under Russian control. Russia got the Ukrainian oil and gas reserves plus a border dispute was established. (According to NATO the countries who want to be members should not have any border dispute). The Crimean people were accepted as citizens of Russia. These things were brushed under the carpet until the June 2021 Brussels summit of NATO members where they reiterated that Ukraine will be made a member of NATO.

Russian troop build-up was at its peak till end of January 2022. It encircled Ukraine from three sides. But the troops were inside Russian territory. On the other side US started predicting Russian invasion of Ukraine. Moscow and Kiev both gave official statements that there are no possibilities of war. Naval Chief of German Navy visited Bharat in January 2022. In one of his interactions with media he clearly said the possibilities of war are less due to which he had to resign. Moscow is trying to make NATO and EU understand not to interfere in their domestic politics. Europe and Russia are highly dependent on each other.

Russia mainly supplies oil and natural gas to the Europe (where all NATO countries belong to except USA and Canada). Waging a war would destroy Russian economy. The Afghan war for 20 years (2001 to 2021) proved very costly for NATO and its members. There is a less possibility that they would engage into another one. Ukraine is not a high-level asset for the west to engage in a direct war for it. It is also not a member of NATO yet so that other NATO countries would deploy troops for its protection (Any attack on a NATO member is considered as an attack on all its members and is responded with full might). If there is a war it would be Europe which will face direct and grave consequences so they will not let this happen. The recent visits to Moscow of British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told us that.

On the other side the approval ratings of US president were at their lowest. It was a crisis as the mid-term elections were approaching. A game began. United States would announce a new advancement in the Russia Ukraine issue. They also said to impose sanctions on Russia, which was not possible. On a fine day POTUS (President of the United States) declared to remove Russia from the SWIFT system (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). Later which was denied by the Whitehouse. If US removes Russia from SWIFT system Russia will join the Chinese CIPS (Cross border Interbank Payment System) which will eventually strengthen Chinese economy. In the beginning of February Russia started military exercises with Belarus. Which made US claims seem to be little valid. US started sending aids to Ukraine. Assured military assistance. Global media was flooded with video clips, news articles and discussions over this. Lastly the POTUS declared February 16th 2020 as the day of invasion, which was also denied by the Whitehouse. There were a lot of meetings and visits of world leaders, give and take of military technology and utter war hysteria. Due to which many countries on the globe gained several things. Some countries as unexpected as Turkey also got advantage of this made-up Hysteria.

In this whole chaos some main things were side lined. The actual Yemeni civil war which killed several civilians and destabilized the Middle Eastern Asia. The Winter Olympics which are played on the graves of Uyghurs was also ignored. And the United Nations was also not seen in the picture, it is only concerned about what happens in Kashmir.

Things that seem to be surprising are the reactions of US over Russia when it seemed that Russia is going to invade Ukraine, in a condition when there is no deal between Ukraine and US. On the other hand, there is China which is threatening and annexing territories of other countries for last decade. Even if we consider events for last two years China has invaded the land frontier airspace and water frontiers of Bharat, Nepal, Bhutan, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, Philippines, and Palau and claimed whole South China Sea. But the only reaction from the west was just stalling their warships in international waters near China and buzzing their aircrafts around.

The role of Bharat: Bharat being the founding member of Non – Aligned movement has always stayed neutral. This time also Bharat will not take sides. There is immense pressure on New Delhi to choose sides but it is reluctant to that pressure. Bharat is eyeing towards central Asian countries for trade and commerce. But if such tensions remain persistent then the situation would become difficult for Bharat.

United States: US planned to gain a lot but could manage only a portion. It strived to portray its President as a strong figure in order to get benefit in the midterm elections. But he himself ensured that this does not happen. Right from the elections Biden emphasized on Russia as main enemy, unlike his predecessor who believed China is the enemy. This stand-off between Russia and Ukraine drove the focus of the world towards Russia as the main enemy. Threatening Russia by the sanctions, US tried its luck into the oil and natural gas market of Europe which is dominated by Russian crude oil products. Also managed to sell its weapons in Europe.

Russia: The player who achieved what it planned. Moscow was the first to start the game and also it is first to open forum for diplomatic talks. Russia will ensure Ukraine does not become a NATO member. It showcased its military might. Moscow gave a direct message to Kiev about what would be the consequences if they decide to join NATO. Kremlin got a review of NATO and its members. Some of which don’t want to follow the Military Alliance of NATO. Germany refused to provide troops to Ukraine. France is at a brink of general elections and the opposition emphasizes on leaving NATO military alliance. Kremlin also got an idea of the trade sanctions which they would receive in case of war and how Europe will itself strive to lift them. Recent strategic nuclear exercise with Belarus tells us Russia is interested in only building up pressure. And that will help Moscow to secure its aims in global politics rather waging a war.

Europe: The European countries understood in case of war, it is them who have to mediate and lead the peace talks, as they would be the one facing maximum destruction. They understood the consequences of sanctions if imposed on Russia. Germany is getting cheapest natural gas through its Nordic stream pipeline project. In case of sanctions, they will suffer.

Ukraine: Kiev understood they have to arm itself as every time there won’t be external help coming. In order to this they signed few deals for arms and weapons. Kiev got a trailer of consequences if it becomes a member of NATO.

China: Beijing is the one who is benefitted by the recent hysteria even not being a direct part of it. The global focus has been shifted to Russia which was on China since the pandemic started. All the actions of China were simply ignored.

Turkey: The least expected country who gained a trade deal. Turkey the FATF grey listed country signed a deal with Ukraine to co-produce Turkish Bayraktor TB – 2 drones in Ukraine.

According to the recent events Ukraine is shelling the Don Bas region which Russia captured. Residents of this area have fled to Russia. This issue may further escalate the standoff. If a war breaks off this would be its immediate cause. Yet let us see what time brings with it.

As of now, such stands the scenario, yet let us see what time brings with it.

References:

https://www.britannica.com/place/Soviet-Union#:~:text=Following%20the%201917%20Revolution%2C%20four,constituent%20republics%20established%20the%20U.S.S.R.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932022_Russo-Ukrainian_crisis

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/apr/04/nato.russia

https://web.archive.org/web/20140320221039/http://www.concordmonitor.com/news/politics/11209502-95/putin-signs-treaty-to-add-crimea-to-map-of-russia

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_37750.htm

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/us/politics/biden-putin-russia-ukraine.html

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/russia-ukraine-war-biden-us-weapons-nato/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/senior-us-official-predicts-russia-will-attack-ukraine-by-mid-february/amp/